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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Study Sees Quebec Separation As Viable
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Foreign Broadcast Information Service, August 9, 1991
Canada: Study Sees Quebec Separation as Viable
</hdr>
<body>
<p>[Manon Cornellier article: "According to a Federal Study,
Quebec Could Manage Better Outside of Canada". Montreal LA
PRESSE in French 12 Jul 91 p B 1]
</p>
<p> [Text] The cohesiveness of Quebec society could enable it to
overcome the potential economic hard times of a separation, and
even to manage better than it does as a part of Canada.
</p>
<p> That is the conclusion of a study made last February for the
federal government and obtained by the TVA television network
from the Ministry of Finance via the Law on Information Access.
</p>
<p> Entitled "A Review of the Literature on the Costs and
Benefits of Confederation," the report was written by Mr.
Patrick Grady, of the economic consultants firm Global Economics
Ltd.
</p>
<p> "A more united society with a smaller economy such as that
of Quebec's can possibly pull together to deal with economic
adversity and even do better economically than it would as part
of Canada," writes Mr. Grady.
</p>
<p> On the other hand, in the light of all the studies made on
the costs and benefits of an independent Quebec, Mr. Grady
concludes that, in the short and medium term, Quebec would go
through a period of economic hardship, and even recession.
</p>
<p> Everything would depend on the prevailing climate of
Canadian-Quebec relations. On the other hand, he predicts,
uncertainty would surely dog the domestic and international
markets. Investments would be frozen, interest rates could
climb, and the stock market would fall.
</p>
<p> However, once the problems of transition were resolved, "a
sovereign Quebec could be economically viable," he writes.
"Quebec would have a gross domestic product as large as several
European countries, and a per capita income among the highest
in the world. Its economy would be relatively diversified and
it would have solid financial institutions."
</p>
<p>The Costs
</p>
<p> According to Mr. Grady, the cost of transition would
determine the rapidity or slowness of the recovery. Costs that
were too high, he adds, would undermine the competitivenes of
Quebec in the long term, because [sovereignty] would occur at
the same time as the liberalization of the North-American
market.
</p>
<p> But in the end, he concludes, it might be "intangible"
factors, unrelated to the economy, that would determine the
real impact of sovereignty on the living standard of Quebeckers.
One of these factors is, in his opinion, the unity of Quebec
society.
</p>
<p> Mr. Grady undertook his review of studies on the costs and
benefits of confederation to see whether any consensus similar
to those that came out of the Belanger-Campeau Commission
existed in Canada.
</p>
<p> Mr. Grady discovered a glaring lack of recent rigorous
analyses. "This means that important decisions on the future of
Quebec and Canada that are now being made are being made
without adequate information on their possible economic
consequences," he worriedly stresses.
</p>
<p> Nearly all of the most solid studies done outside of Quebec
on the question were made at the end of the seventies, during
the referendum period.
</p>
<p> Most of them were generated by the Information Center on
Canadian Unity. Since then, only the Macdonald Commission has
done additional research.
</p>
<p> Mr. Grady notes that most of these studies have lost their
relevance, for several of their economic arguments in favor of
federalism, such as the national energy program, have now
disappeared.
</p>
<p> Among other points, Mr. Grady remarks that the federal
government has no rigorous analysis of the question of dividing
assets and debts should Quebec separate.
</p>
<p> In fact, the Finance Ministry told the TVA network that it
had only three documents analyzing the economic and financial
costs of Quebec's independence.
</p>
<p> Besides Mr. Grady's study, the ministry is said to have a
commercial report that was submitted to the government in
confidence, as well as information whose communication "would
probably harm federal-provincial relations." The latter
documents will not be made public.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>